|
Lake Tahoe and Truckee Market Statistics and Analysis As of January 31, 2010
Mortgage Interest Rates
The Federal Reserve has been artificially holding mortgage interest rates at record low values by buying the surplus mortgage bonds with TARP funds. The following points are worth noting: · At the last Federal Reserve board meeting the Fed announced they would not purchase surplus mortgage bonds after March 31, 2010. · This means that rates will re-adjust to their true market value before or after March 31, 2010. · Normally when there are surplus mortgage bonds, mortgage rates rise until the bonds become attractive to investors and the surplus is bought up. · Normally, mortgage rates change inversely with the stock market. When money flows into the stock market and stock prices go up, money flows out of the bond market creating surplus mortgage bonds, so mortgage rates go up. Currently, the DOW is up to about 10,000, which is well above the low in March 2009, i.e., money has flowed into the stock market. · Every 1% increase in mortgage interest requires a 10% decrease in home prices to keep the monthly interest payments the same for a loan.
Market Summary and Analysis
Single family homes in North Lake Tahoe (California side), Truckee and Tahoe Donner are continuing to be affordable for more buyers. · The number of homes for sale in the $100,000 to $400,000 range remain high numbers at North Lake Tahoe and Truckee, however, at Tahoe Donner available homes in this price range are almost depleted. · The median price for homes sold in Tahoe Donner for 2009 was $565,000, down $200,000 (26%) compared to 2005. · Interest rates remained low at 5.125% for a 30 year fixed conforming loan up to $417,000 as of Friday, 1/19/10. The 30 year fixed super conforming loan was 5.125% for loans up to $562,500. The 30 year fixed Jumbo loans were 5.750%.
Charts that support the market analysis are shown directly after the summary and analysis.
November, December, 2009, and January 2010 have continued the substantial upturn for the number of single family homes sold in Tahoe Donner that started in February, 2009. Recent home sales continue to look very positive: · Tahoe Donner home sales for January were 9 homes, down 54% when compared to the last 3 months. January 2010 is identical when compared year over year to January 2009 sales of 9 homes. Tahoe Donner home sales for the last 3 months averaged 20 homes sold per month, and were 4% greater than the average 2009 monthly sales of 19 homes per month. The last 3 months for Tahoe Donner is up 46% when compared year over year to November 2008 thru January, 2009. In short, this was an unusually high number of homes to be sold in Tahoe Donner for the last three months. Usually home sales are down due to the holidays. · For February 2010 an expected 11 homes will sell in Tahoe Donner (sold already in February or scheduled to close in escrow), so the average home sales will likely be well below the 2009 monthly average. This may be due to the lack of inventory for buyers to choose homes from. · The median price for single family homes sold in Tahoe Donner is down 34% for January compared to the last 3 months. For the last 3 months the median price for home sales is up 2% when compared to 2009. The leveling off in home prices combined with low interest rates will likely continue to sell off the available inventory. · For Truckee the number of sales for single family homes is up by 18%, and for North Lake Tahoe they are up by 17% comparing the last three months of sales to the 2009 monthly average. Truckee sold 28 homes in January and is expect to sell 36 homes in February. All of Lake Tahoe stretching from Kings Beach to Rubicon Bay sold 14 single family homes in January, and is expected to sell 14 single family homes in February. The months of inventory at Lake Tahoe has shrunk from 28 months in February, 2009, to just 8 months in January 2010. That is a substantial improvement in home sales at Lake Tahoe. · For Tahoe Donner, bank owned (REO) and short sales represent 20% of the homes for sale (these are mostly short sales with about 70% in escrow waiting bank approval, currently there is one bank owned home for sale in Tahoe Donner), and for Truckee 25% and North Lake Tahoe 18%. This continues the substantial jump in the number of short sales and bank owned properties compared to the total active listings. This jump is due to an increase in the number of bank owned and short sales, and a seasonal decrease in the homes for sale. The number of short sales and bank owned properties may become a significant force in setting prices if these percentages hold through the summer of 2010. · A short sale is defined as an asking price that is less than owed the lender, so the lender will get less money than owed (shorted) if the lender agrees to the sale. About 30% of the short sales close escrow.
Market Statistics
All data is from the Tahoe Sierra Multiple Listing Service (MLS). This information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. |
|
A Lake Tahoe and Truckee Real Estate Newsletter for my Clients and Friends |
|
John Williamson 530-412-1356
|
|
California Realtor® license 01490822 Nevada Realtor® license S0167613 |
|
Resort and Second Home Property Specialist |
|
11500 Donner Pass Road Truckee, CA 96161 |
|
Accredited Buyer Representative |
|
Truckee communities with amenities As of January 31, 2010
Tahoe Donner still has a wider price range of homes for sale than other Truckee communities with amenities. |
|
The number of home sales in Tahoe Donner continues to be very high. Sales in the other communities with amenities in Truckee continue to be almost non-existent. The reason is likely in the following chart “Median price for homes sold”. |
|
Truckee communities with fewer amenities As of January 31, 2010
The price range for communities with fewer amenities is shown in the chart below (Glenshire does have several tennis courts, a swimming pool, and a clubhouse). |
|
All content Copyrighted © John Williamson 2010. All rights reserved. Contact John Williamson and obtain written permission before using or reproducing any material contained on this site. |