Lake Tahoe and Truckee market analysis

A Real Estate Newsletter for my Clients and Friends

Lake Tahoe and Truckee

Market Statistics and Analysis

As of July 31, 2009

Market Summary and Analysis

Single family homes in North Lake Tahoe (California), Truckee and Tahoe Donner are continuing to be affordable for more buyers.

· The number of homes for sale in the $100,000 to $400,000 range continue to increase.

· Interest rates remained low at 5.125% for a 30 year fixed conforming loan as of Friday, 8/15/09. The 30 year fixed Jumbo loans were 6.250%.

Charts that support the market analysis are shown directly after the summary and analysis.

May, June and July have continued the upturn for number of single family homes sold in Tahoe Donner that started in February, 2009. Recent home sales are looking very positive:

· Tahoe Donner home sales for July were up 15% when compared to the last 3 months. Tahoe Donner home sales for the last 3 months were greater than the average 2008 monthly sales, which exceeded 2006 monthly sales.

· For August 2009 an expected 20 homes will sell in Tahoe Donner (sold already in August or expected to close in escrow), so the average home sales will likely increase and remain above the 2008 monthly average.

· The median price for single family homes sold in Tahoe Donner is down by 6% for July compared to the last 3 months. However, the last 3 months the median price for home sales is down 20% when compared to 2008. The continued downward trend in home prices makes homes more affordable which increases the volume of sales.

· For Truckee the number of sales for single family homes is up by 16% and for North Lake Tahoe up by 24% comparing July sales to the last three months. Truckee sold 42 homes in July and is expect to sell 43 homes in August. All of Lake Tahoe stretching from Kings Beach to Rubicon Bay sold 21 single family homes in July, and is expected to sell 23 single family homes in August. This continues a substantial improvement in home sales at Lake Tahoe.

· For Tahoe Donner, bank owned (REO) and short sales represent 8% of the homes for sale, and for Truckee 9 % and North Lake Tahoe 11%. These numbers are low enough that short sales and bank owned properties are a small factor in determining market value; however, there may be some effect.

· A short sale is defined as an asking price that is less than owed the lender, so the lender will get less money than owed (shorted) if the lender agrees to the sale.

Market Statistics

All data is from the Tahoe Sierra Multiple Listing Service (MLS). This information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Truckee communities with amenities

As of July 31, 2009

Tahoe Donner still has a wider price range of homes for sale than other Truckee communities with amenities.

Home sales in Tahoe Donner increased in July. Sales in the other communities with amenities in Truckee continue to be almost non-existent. The reason is likely in the following chart “Median price for homes sold”.

Truckee communities with fewer amenities

As of July 31, 2009

The price range for communities with fewer amenities is shown in the chart below (Glenshire does have several tennis courts, a swimming pool, and a clubhouse).

The below chart shows asking prices for homes are available in the $100,000 to $400,000 range in North Lake Tahoe, Truckee and Tahoe Donner.

Home sales for Tahoe Donner homes have increased when comparing the last three months to the previous three years of sales. Home sales for Truckee and Lake Tahoe for the last three months are above the average number of homes sold per month for the last three years, which is a very positive change. Home sales for Truckee and Lake Tahoe are very positive when comparing July to the last three months of sales.

Home prices have continued to trend downward. The median price for sold homes has continued to drop for North Lake Tahoe, Truckee, and Tahoe Donner..

When comparing the last 3 months to the last three years, home prices continued to decline for Tahoe Donner, Truckee and North Lake Tahoe.

For Tahoe Donner, bank and short sales represented 8% of the homes for sale, and for Truckee and North Lake Tahoe 9% and 11% respectively as of July 31, 2009. These numbers are low enough that short sales and bank owned properties are a small factor in determining market value; however, there may be some effect.

Sales for July continued the upturn in the number of single family homes sold in Truckee and Tahoe Donner, as shown in the chart below. Expected August sales (sold and in escrow) shows a continued expected increase in home sales over the monthly average for 2008. The months of inventory of active homes in Tahoe Donner has dropped from 12 months of inventory based on the first three months of 2009, to 10 months based on the last three months.

For the entire west shore and north shore on the California side of Lake Tahoe there are 23 months of active inventory based on sales for the last three months. Homes sales increased substantially in July to 21 homes sold.

Months of inventory is calculated by dividing the number of active homes for sale by the average number of sales per month for the last three months May 2009 thru July 2009. The National Association of Realtors considers six months of inventory as a healthy market.

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John Williamson

530-412-1356